An attack helicopter flies during an anti-drone training exercise in Paju, a city near the inter-Korean border, Thursday. Yonhap

Possibility of drone taking photos cannot be ruled out: spy agency

By Jung Min-ho

The North Korean drones that crossed into South Korea last week were not advanced ones: The glider type model, which appears to be an imitation of common Chinese commercial drones, probably cost less than 10 million won ($7,800), an expert says.

Yet the drones were able to create an air of anxiety and insecurity in South Korea, where the military is now scrambling to improve its anti-drone defense system. After having seen how effective the unmanned aerial vehicles can be for heightening tensions, the North will likely repeat such provocations in the year ahead, according to analysts Thursday.

"North Korea is expected to continue to use cost-effective methods for provocation such as a drone invasion," Oh Gyeong-seob, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), a think tank, said during a forum on North Korea's New Year messages. "What North Korea ultimately wants is to be recognized as a nuclear weapons state. To achieve that, it needs to keep stirring up tensions to move Washington ― but probably not to the point where South Korea and the U.S. would retaliate … Drones can be one of the effective tools for this."

This assessment comes the same day that South Korea's military shifted its previous stance to admit that one of the five North Korean drones entered the northern end of a no-fly zone surrounding the office of President Yoon Suk-yeol on Dec. 26.

US will work closely with Seoul to monitor NK threats: Pentagon 2023-01-06 08:38  |  North Korea
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) initially denied the media reports that the drone traveled that far until its radar data analysis showed it clearly did.

Speaking to reporters, a JCS official said the drone flew through a part of the "northern tip" of the P-73 zone, which covers a 3.7-kilometer radius around the presidential building in central Seoul.

Members of the National Assembly's intelligence committee, Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party and Rep. Youn Kun-young of the Democratic Party of Korea, later said the possibility of the drone taking pictures of the presidential complex cannot be ruled out, citing intelligence officials.

The National Intelligence Service also said North Korea has about 500 drones of 20 different types, most of which are small ― from one to six meters in length ― including those capable of carrying self-destruct attack devices, Yoo said.

A TV screen shows footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a news program at Seoul Station, Jan. 1. AP-Yonhap

After the incident, the president ordered the military to strengthen its defense system against small drones. But it may take months, if not years, to build a reliable system. Sooner or later, the North might move again to exploit the proven vulnerability, said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

"A drone that size would probably be able to carry 500 grams of explosive substances, which I think is insufficient for significant damage to key facilities here," Shin told The Korea Times. "But it would make big headlines and cause security concerns among the public. That's what we should be worried about and prepared for."

KINU researchers said North Korea will focus more on beefing up its military this year, with leader Kim Jong-un calling for an "exponential increase" of nuclear weapons.

"North Korea's New Year messages were largely focused on strengthening the military. The proportion was the biggest in years. Meanwhile, the economic part was very small," said Hong Min, a senior researcher at KINU. "With some 20 joint military drills planned with the U.S. for the first half of the year alone, tensions are expected to continue to rise … All this suggests a tense year ahead."